Introduction

The Diaoyudao (Senkaku) Islands dispute is not merely a territorial conflict between China and Japan, but a broader power struggle involving the United States. As maritime tensions intensify in East Asia, Diaoyudao has become a flashpoint in the growing competition for regional hegemony between China and the US.

China’s Strategic Perspective

For China, Diaoyudao is a core national interest. During the 2013 US-China Summit, President Xi Jinping emphasized this point to President Barack Obama, warning Washington against interfering in Sino-Japanese matters. Beijing views the dispute as part of a larger US strategy to control East Asian waters and contain China’s rise.

Despite outward diplomacy, China’s foreign policy under Xi has grown more assertive, especially in territorial disputes. China's aim is to exclude the US from direct involvement in Diaoyudao-related issues and resolve them bilaterally with Japan.

The US Maritime Strategy and Historical Lessons

Since World War II, the United States has played a central role in maintaining peace and order in East Asia. However, its strategic withdrawal after the Cold War led to a power vacuum, which China quickly exploited—occupying islands in the South China Sea, including the Paracel and Spratly Islands and Mischief Reef.

Recognizing past strategic missteps, the US now commits to preventing any change to the status quo. This includes supporting Japan’s claim to the Diaoyudao Islands under the US-Japan Security Treaty.

Rising Tensions and Potential Conflict Scenarios

If armed conflict erupts over Diaoyudao, the situation could quickly escalate:

  1. Sino-Japanese clash over the islands.

  2. US intervention, turning the dispute into a US-China confrontation.

Although China currently lacks full military parity with the US, it is aggressively modernizing its naval capabilities, including building aircraft carriers, submarines, and destroyers. By 2050, China's naval power could challenge US dominance in the Pacific.

Nationalism and the 2010 Collision Incident

The 2010 collision between a Chinese fishing vessel and a Japanese patrol ship near Diaoyudao sparked widespread Chinese nationalism. Since then, Beijing has adopted a "strong diplomacy" stance, actively defending its maritime interests rather than remaining passive. It sees this approach as essential to breaking Japan’s maritime control system and securing key sea routes.

East Asia’s Power Shift

Although Diaoyudao was once a peripheral issue, it is now central to the US-China maritime rivalry. The region is undergoing a power transition, and the dispute has become a symbol of shifting hegemony in Northeast Asia.

China’s modern maritime strategy is no longer reactive. It confronts US naval forces directly, matching them with aggressive political and military responses. Post-2020, China’s naval strength in the region may not be significantly weaker than the US.

Strategic Implications for South Korea

The US-China maritime contest has direct implications for countries like South Korea. The 2010 Cheonan sinking showed China's prioritization of national interest over regional stability. Moreover, Diaoyudao is connected to disputes over the continental shelf, Taiwan, the South and West China Seas, and northern territories with Russia and Japan.

Conclusion

The Diaoyudao conflict represents more than a bilateral spat—it's a crucial theater in the global struggle for maritime dominance. As China's capabilities grow and nationalism rises, East Asian countries may face increasing pressure to choose sides in the emerging US-China maritime order.