China has long been treated as an important country on the
international stage due to its vast territory, resources, and large
population. Since Deng Xiaoping began market-oriented economic reforms
in 1978, the country has made rapid progress and has emerged as an
increasingly important country on the global stage, beyond the Asian
region. However, predictions and prospects for China's rise differ among
scholars. Some believe that China's respect for collective security and the
constant changes in its socialist system will enable it to continue to
develop in all areas through cooperation with Western countries, including
the United States, and that the high growth of the Chinese economy may
bring about chaos.In particular, the China Threat Theory and the Rise of China Theory have
emerged, which claim that China will seek hegemony in East Asia after the
Tiananmen Square incident on June 4, 1989, and will come into direct
conflict with the existing hegemonic powers. The theoretical basis of the
China threat theory is based on the assumption that the influence of the
United States in the international order will gradually decrease in the
post-Cold War era, and that the role and influence of China will increase
instead. The China threat theory is a logic formed by the complex factors
of China's domestic and international situations in the early 1990s, and
it stems from China's ambition to fill the power vacuum created by the
decline of the influence of the United States and Russia in East Asia and
concerns about the possibility of resolving the anxiety about maintaining
the system following the fall of socialism through provocative behavior
toward the outside world. In fact, China's claim to sovereignty over the
Nansha Islands in the early 1990s, along with its firm resolve to use
force over Taiwan and Tibet on the grounds of sovereignty issues, was seen
as increasing the likelihood of military conflict. Domestically, as the
military's influence increased following the Tiananmen Square protests, it
was also expected that the military's hardline stance would be reflected
in foreign policy. Moreover, the rapid increase in defense spending since
1989 and the acceleration of the acquisition of state-of-the-art weapons
have provided further evidence to strengthen China's threat
narrative. On the other hand, the Chinese hegemony theory is related to the Chinese
threat theory, but it predicts that China will pursue regional hegemony in
the 21st century as it seeks to become an economic and military
superpower. This logic is based on the hypothesis that economically
powerful China will become a military superpower and, coupled with its
intention to regain its past glory, will exercise hegemony and destroy the
world's peace order. The Chinese hegemony theory is divided into the
arguments of the Realists and the arguments of the Liberals. The former
argues that the newly emerging China should be checked and contained,
while the latter believes that China will pursue regime security with
economic development as its top national goal. Discussions about Chinese
hegemony cannot be had with countries other than the United States, which
is one of the pillars of the hegemonic competition. In other words, this
is because political, structural, and cognitive factors such as changes in
the times and circumstances, the strategic needs of the United States,
differences in systems, differences in historical interpretation, and
predictions of the future are at play. However, John Mearsheimer raised
the following points in terms of realism, historicism, and
liberalism.
First, in terms of realism, the conflict between the United States and
China over hegemony is seen as inevitable. This is based on the realist view
that the international community is in a state of anarchy, and if China
continues to develop its economy at the current level, it will grow into a
power that is comparable to the United States (a peer competitor), and the
possibility of a serious security competition, including a war with the United
States, cannot be ruled out. In international relations, the superpowers
ultimately maximize their power and do not tolerate the emergence of
competitors. However, it is difficult for a single country to emerge as a
hegemonic power that dominates the entire world, but it is possible to at
least occupy a dominant position within a region. There are also empirical
examples of how realism fails to prevent conflicts between countries due to
economic factors. In the case of Germany before World War I and Japan and
Germany on the eve of World War II, economic development and mutual economic
interde pendence with neighboring countries increased, but the outbreak of war
was not prevented. In terms of the theory of power transition based on this
realism, we can also predict the future conflict between the United States and
China. Emerging powers seek to demonstrate their power and the rules and
institutions that serve their interests through action, while established
powers feel threatened by the loss of power and security. The period when such
a power shift takes place is a period of instability, which increases the
likelihood of various forms of armed conflict, including war. If we look at
the current relationship between the US and China from the perspective of the
theory of power competition, China's continued economic growth could lead to
the two countries entering a serious security competition, including the
possibility of war and armed conflict, when China reaches a level of economic
growth that is on par with the US. Therefore, if China becomes economically
equal to the United States and its military power is enhanced, it is likely to
seek regional hegemony in Asia, unlike the current situation.
There are various academic claims about China's hegemony, but realists see China's rise as a threat and believe that it will inevitably compete with the United States to maintain the balance of power. On the other hand, liberals see China's rise as an economic opportunity and expect it to maintain a cooperative relationship with the United States. However, looking at China's various behaviors at present, it can be interpreted as seeking hegemony in the region by reducing the influence of the United States in Asia. Therefore, while Korea is making every effort to modernize its military capabilities through continued internal and external stability and economic growth, it needs to keep a close eye on China's actions and prepare for national survival. It is said that China does not aim for hegemony, but it is already in the ranks of the strongest countries that surpass South Korea in terms of politics, economy, and military. China's goal of becoming a military power is perhaps understandable, but there are still questions as to whether it is truly for the sake of peace in Northeast Asia.
Second, from a historical perspective, China is likely to follow the footsteps of the United States as a regional hegemon. Just as the United States does not dominate the countries in the Americas but exerts influence, China can also emerge as a dominant power by maximizing the difference in national power over the countries in Northeast Asia and exert influence over neighboring countries. If China does this, the United States will not tolerate this form of behavior and will further restrain and block it.